Articles on Issue Theme
Daniel DĂIANU
Societatea Română de Economie (SOREC)
The intensification of financial turmoil and the impairment of the functioning of credit markets would restrain economic activity in the near future. From the euro zone economy’s point of view two issues stand out. First, the MU does not seem to have the adequate mechanisms in place to deal with crisis of this magnitude. Second, its goods and services, money and labour markets do not seem to be resilient enough to allow for a speedier economic recovery. What are the prospects for the NMS to join the euro-zone in the medium term? In short, not very bright. It may well take close to a decade for the euro-zone area to adopt new members. The current crisis would have real effects and economic recovery in the NMS is likely to be slow, especially if foreign investors would have a more cautious approach towards them. Moreover, Maastricht criteria would be more difficult to achieve by the NMS in the short and medium term as fiscal policy would need to support economic recovery. It may well be that the current crisis would prove to be a test for the resilience of the NMS economies. There is a chance that, if their macroeconomic policies are sound, they could still emerge as winners from the global turmoil as their convergence path towards the EU would necessarily imply achieving higher economic growth rates than the euro zone economies.
ŒCONOMICA no. 1/2009
Keywords: euro adoption, economic crisis, Maastricht criteria, European Monetary Union
JEL: E52, F36
Provocările adoptării euro pentru statele non-membre ale Eurozonei
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