Articles on Issue Theme
Răzvan BĂRBULESCU
Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti
Mihaela DOBRE
Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti
Despite the Global Economic Crisis that has started in 2008 was predictable due to economic cyclicity and through the exponential growth in bubble asset values, many economists have preferred to look away. Now another crisis is getting closer and economists are still looking away.
Population ageing caused by the drop in fertility and the increase of life expectancy leads Romania along with most other countries to a future unsustainable situation. The small amount of working aged people will need to sustain a large amount of old people. This leads to issues in the public pension system and the healthcare system that would both be underfinanced. In order to partially finance these two systems, governments might be forced to borrow large amounts of money and become heavily indebted. Tax raises in order to pay debts are a potential hurdle in workforce motivation and productivity, which means also private pensions might not be the solution. Many economic sectors, from constructions to financial markets or from IT to health services will feel the changes in demand that an aged population leads to.
The present paper aims to present some of the reasons that lead to the foreseeable changes and some scenarios of the economic changes in the 2010-2060 timeframe.
Population ageing caused by the drop in fertility and the increase of life expectancy leads Romania along with most other countries to a future unsustainable situation. The small amount of working aged people will need to sustain a large amount of old people. This leads to issues in the public pension system and the healthcare system that would both be underfinanced. In order to partially finance these two systems, governments might be forced to borrow large amounts of money and become heavily indebted. Tax raises in order to pay debts are a potential hurdle in workforce motivation and productivity, which means also private pensions might not be the solution. Many economic sectors, from constructions to financial markets or from IT to health services will feel the changes in demand that an aged population leads to.
The present paper aims to present some of the reasons that lead to the foreseeable changes and some scenarios of the economic changes in the 2010-2060 timeframe.
ŒCONOMICA no. 4/2010
Keywords: population ageing, social security, pensions, public debt
JEL: H55, J11, J14
Criza care va veni – o analiză pe termen mediu şi lung a modificărilor demografice şi a efectelor acestora asupra pieţei muncii şi stabilităţii sistemelor de securitate socială
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