Revista OEconomica

Raluca-Georgiana ROBU, Maria GHEORGHE (NIŢU), Valentin COJANU, Alexia-Maria POPESCU - Between Opportunity and Dependency: The Evolution of Romania’s Trade with Asian Economies [Între oportunitate şi dependenţă: evoluţia comerţului României cu economiile asiatice]

Narciz BĂLĂŞOIU, Octavian-Dragomir JORA, Răzvan Marian PÎRCĂLĂBESCU - Romania’s Positioning and Room for Manoeuvre: The Dilemmas of Peripheral Adaptation in the New Indo-Pacific [Poziţionarea şi marjele de manevră ale României: dilemele adaptării periferice în noul Indo-Pacific]

Mădălina JURUBIțĂ - Redefining EU Trade Policy for an Age of Geoeconomic Rivalry: Strategic Autonomy, Security, and Resilience

Geicun MUSTAFA - Islamophobia as an Informal Trade Barrier: Reputational Risk and the Political Economy of Deglobalization

Hesam JEBELI-BAKHT-ARA - Racialized Capitalism and Economic Discrimination: The Case of Ethnic Labour Segmentation in Contemporary Europe

Articles on Issue Theme

Andrei RĂDULESCU

SSIF Broker

Over the past quarters the exports have been the economic trigger of Romania, a small, open economy caught between the domestic capital drought and lack of new foreign capital, on the one hand, and the political instability signs, on the other hand. The exports rose by over 10% yoy during first half of 2013, with positive impact for the manufacturing. This paper identifies the main factors that influence the Romanian exports and estimates and forecasts the exporting potential (structural component of the exports) of our economy. I applied the standard OLS regression and the Hodrick-Prescott methodology on quarterly data of Eurostat and Bank for International Settlements for the period 2001-2013. According to the results, the Romanian exports potential is around 5% yoy at present. There can be drawn several interesting conclusions from this paper: the sustainability of the recent dynamics of the Romanian exports; the structural European convergence in terms of exports; the persistent divergence between the exports and the domestic demand.

ŒCONOMICA no. 2/2013

Keywords: Romanian economy, exports potential, real effective exchange rate

JEL: C40, F14, F15

The Economy of Romania – its Export Potential [Economia României – potenţialul exportului]

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