Articles on Issue Theme
Andrei RĂDULESCU
SSIF Broker
Over the past quarters the exports have been the economic trigger of Romania, a small, open economy caught between the domestic capital drought and lack of new foreign capital, on the one hand, and the political instability signs, on the other hand. The exports rose by over 10% yoy during first half of 2013, with positive impact for the manufacturing. This paper identifies the main factors that influence the Romanian exports and estimates and forecasts the exporting potential (structural component of the exports) of our economy. I applied the standard OLS regression and the Hodrick-Prescott methodology on quarterly data of Eurostat and Bank for International Settlements for the period 2001-2013. According to the results, the Romanian exports potential is around 5% yoy at present. There can be drawn several interesting conclusions from this paper: the sustainability of the recent dynamics of the Romanian exports; the structural European convergence in terms of exports; the persistent divergence between the exports and the domestic demand.
ŒCONOMICA no. 2/2013
Keywords: Romanian economy, exports potential, real effective exchange rate
JEL: C40, F14, F15
The Economy of Romania – its Export Potential [Economia României – potenţialul exportului]
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Octavian-Dragomir JORA
Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti
Alexandru POPOVICI
Universitatea Româno-Americană
Ramona Iulia DIEACONESCU
Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti
Andra Nicoleta MECU
Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti
Florentina CHIŢU
Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti
Răzvan PÎRCĂLĂBESCU
Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti
Cristian MANOLACHI
Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti
Anca TAMAŞ
Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti
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