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The purpose of the paper is to present an efficient instrument for simulation and research of inflation and its determinants in Romania, with a focus on the short-term impact of changes in money, foreign exchange and wage policies and controlled prices as well as the impact of external shocks as international price of oil on future inflation in Romania. The paper elaborates a model of inflation for Romania and a uses VAR models for analyzing the impact of factors like oil price and exchange rate on inflation. 

Keywords: inflation, price, forecasting and simulation, VAR

JEL: E31, E37, C53, P22

Modelarea inflaţiei în România

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