Online ISSN 2286-0266
Print ISSN 1223-0685
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Alexandru GEORGESCU
Cercetător independent
Wide-ranging tensions that have gradually accumulated in authoritarian Muslim societies erupted suddenly, less than a year ago, leading to an assortment of social conflicts, from heavy protests to outright civil war. There is extensive economic damage, both for the regions in question (North Africa, Middle East), as well as for the international community, both at its doorstep or at the end of its pipelines. This article outlines those economic losses and attempts to impress upon the reader the potential for further disruptions at a regional level. There is a wasted economic potential in the youthful and increasingly well educated populations of Muslim countries, confined to poverty and handouts from economic rents of natural resources controlled by a small class of political insiders. In analyzing the events of the so-called Arab Spring, it is important to avoid any hindsight bias and keep in mind that, while the intrinsic tensions and fault lines of these societies have been known for years, the current popular movements are something entirely new. The high level of contagion and the spontaneous protest movements which, fuelled by modern communication technology, have bypassed established opposition groups, have generated optimism in the West. However, where the public sees opportunity for political change, economic actors see uncertainty and risk, which is why regional autocrats have been tolerated for so long. Finally, the Muslim countries in the Middle East and Northern Africa are not the only illiberal states in the area, and the former Soviet autocracies in Central Asia have experienced their own upheavals, in line with the contagion theory. The fortunes of the revolutionaries ebb and flow, but there is lingering doubt in the West as to whether a successful revolution will transition into a functional democracy and not be hijacked by fundamentalists, kleptocrats or members of the old regime.

ŒCONOMICA no. 2/2011
Keywords: Arab Spring, colored revolution, rentier state, youth bulge, North Africa, autocrat, oil, energy dependence, kleptocracy, redistribution, Central Asia
JEL: F51, F54, H53, I32, J11, K42, O14, O17, P52, Q32, Q34
Contagiuni, dar şi oportunităţi ratate – efecte economice ale „Primăverii Musulmane”