Articles on Issue Theme
Dan OLTEANU
Academia Română
We study the evolutions of monetary conditions in Romania previous and during the recession, and the extent to which GDP shocks are related to these conditions. The results confirmed the essential role of interest rate, credit and exchange rate in this respect, fact which underlines the importance of the monetary policy measures in stimulating the domestic / external demand. The exchange rate has an important weight, which shows the contribution of the currency depreciation to the pre-crisis increase of domestic product. We find that the reduction of GDP growth during the crisis (2008-2010) is more ample against the reduction of monetary conditions, revealing an important role of the real channel (especially external demand) in transmitting the shocks from abroad. The currency depreciation failed to stimulate the domestic product, due to the reduced external demand, to similar devaluations of competitors' currencies, but also due to the increasing proportion of imports in the exported products. Under these conditions, the reduction of capital account had a substantially recessionistic effect. Starting with the end of 2010, the GDP oscillations are restored around the monetary conditions, the latter recovering its capacity to anticipate the macroeconomic evolution.
ŒCONOMICA no. 2/2013
Keywords: monetary conditions index, GDP growth, macro-financial linkages
JEL: E44, E52, E32
Monetary Conditions and GDP Evolution in Romania [Condiţiile monetare şi evoluţia PIB în România]
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Octavian-Dragomir JORA
Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti
Mara Andreea TUDOR
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Cătălin MURARAŞU
Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti
Ramona Iulia DIEACONESCU
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Maria GHEORGHE (NIŢU)
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